Definitely a no on $1k for me. I'm paying $490 between VX and BCP (net $440 once I get the $50 credit from Amex for corporate advantage program). These two cards I can easily earn plenty to make the AFs worthwhile, but don't think I could justify most other AF cards right now. I could probably justify Savor's $95 AF over SavorOne, but it's probably not worth it. I don't know how long I will sustain the dining and entertainment spend I have and the hassle of closing SavorOne and not being guaranteed a Savor approval is a bit risky imo.
Between myself and P2, we plan to keep cards that total ~$2.7k in annual fees but, using conservative numbers, get us ~$4.1k in value (mostly towards travel) for a ~$1.4k gain. We plan to add another three cards with $95 fees that will increase this gain.
Sure, Amex Plat is a coupon book, but the last time I did a deep dive, we came out ~$275 ahead. Since that post I have booked two Hertz rentals where the Amex Plat CDP gave by far the best price, something I hadn't factored in. Plus having status through a card has almost always gotten us upgrades or allowed us to choose our car - I have not assigned a value to this, but it does consistently give us a nicer car for the same price.
If any card with an annual fee became no longer worth holding, it would be canceled or PC'd. We'll be ditching three annual fees within the next year - two will be PC'd, one closed due to not having a good downgrade path.
Having points across multiple systems and perks with many brands allows us to use points/certificates/etc when most valuable. For our summer trip, we are doing 2x 4-night stays at IHG on points, netting a solid points rate given the 4th night free with points perk. But we're flying American to NM, Sun Country to MN, and then Southwest back home - no option (or no solid option) via points, but decent paid rates.
Our next trip will be to Banff, where we will be traveling with two others and splitting an airbnb to cut down on costs - no good points option there for lodging, especially as we'd need multiple rooms if we went with hotels. But we booked airfare for two on the way out for 25k Amex MR transferred to Delta with $26.20 in fees. And for the way back, we redeemed ~$810 of the $850 we had built up in United Travel Bank.
P2 
Chopped 
@Vash1 wrote:Nice. So since you're using multiple systems how are you splitting spend between cards (like Amex and Chase for example)?
Is you're spend just high so that it's easy to split between two different eco systems or do you use one eco system one year and another one the next?
Ask cause I use primary Amex right now but also just got CSR so looking to utilize with CFU for chase UR rewards double effect. Looking at how Ill maximize both all for travel rewards.
Like you I get ousizes value from the platinum coupon book that I'm plus $150 on the AF.
I'll start by saying I only have one card with an annual fee that requires a minimum amount of spend to justify the annual fee, which is the Best Western Premium that requires $5k in spend every 12 billing cycles in order to gain 40k bonus points.
We don't plan on keeping any cards where the perks do not justify the annual fee, for us. As an example P2 has CSP right now. Some may consider the annual fee to effectively be $45 after the $50 hotel credit, and may be more than happy to pay $45 to be able to transfer to Hyatt and have primary rental insurance without paying an additional fee. But, while we certainly find value in Hyatt, we do not stay at Hyatt often, plus I can transfer from Bilt. We also have primary rental car insurance on Venture X.
So for us, we cycle things with Chase - P2 got the CSP when the SUB was high, will downgrade to CFF, and then I'll get CSP about a year later, then downgrade to another CFF a year later, then when P2 is eligible for a CSP SUB again we'll repeat the process.
With Amex, I get around 30k MR per year using the Rakuten browser extension, so the other earn is primarily on Plat for 5X on flights with some spend on BBP at 2X.
Citi is where I focus much of my spend - 5X TYP on up to $500 each on 2x Custom Cash, plus 3X on Premier at times, such as Sun Country Airlines not taking Amex. I'll add Rewards+ in time, possibly Double Cash as well. My focus on Citi is largely due to the 1:2 transfer ratio to Choice (requires Premier), though I recently tested transferring from my WF Autograph (original, no annual fee) and it also has the 1:2 transfer ratio.
It would take a long time to dive into each system but basically I use my spreadsheet to track my historical uses for points. I have columns for the high market, low market, and personal value for each booking, with the personal value primarily being based on comparable paid bookings. The high and low market are really just for context, but the personal value is used to determine my return. For example with Marriott Bonvoy the high market value has been 1.09cpp, but our personal value has been .69cpp, meaning 4X in spend only sees 2.77% in value in the form of Marriott points.
This helps me determine which card sees the highest return, but sometimes the returns are close - for example we have a number of cards that would see between 5.6-6.5% on dining. If I earned 6.5% in Currency A and 5.6% in Currency B, but I have a ton of Currency A and very little in Currency B, I'll happily swipe for the "lesser" return if there is a benefit that is less quantifiable, such as Currency B being easier to use/find a good redemption.
But this goes back to not keeping cards if the perks do not justify the annual fee and only having one card with a minimum amount of spend ($5k / 12 cycles), as I don't feel any need or pressure to spend more or less in one system. And this changes over time - we had been sitting on almost 200k in IHG points, but then we spent 155k between 2x 4-night bookings. We hadn't had a good sense of how we would value IHG points, but now that we've made two bookings we do, and so we'll start diverting some spend to it (mostly home improvement and some non-category).
@okurosetta wrote:But this goes back to not keeping cards if the perks do not justify the annual fee and only having one card with a minimum amount of spend ($5k / 12 cycles), as I don't feel any need or pressure to spend more or less in one system. And this changes over time - we had been sitting on almost 200k in IHG points, but then we spent 160k between 2x 4-night bookings. We hadn't had a good sense of how we would value IHG points, but now that we've made two bookings we do, and so we'll start diverting some spend to it (mostly home improvement and some non-category).
oku, since you brought it up, what are you calculating an IHG point to be worth? I'm calcing a disappointing ~0.6cpp.
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@ptatohed wrote:oku, since you brought it up, what are you calculating an IHG point ot be worth? I'm calcing a disappointing ~0.6cpp.
The numbers are still tentative because they're based on future stays - if the paid rate drops we may keep it with a lower rate of return, or if a better booking comes around they'll get canceled period.
I'll also say that the trip we're using them on is 4 nights in Los Alamos NM and then 4 nights in Minneapolis, which works very well with the 4th night free with points. If you're seeing ~.6cpp, those same bookings would be ~.8cpp if you booked 4 nights. Of course that would require wanting to stay 4 nights, and from previous posts I don't think that's your aim.
For the Los Alamos nights, we have 85k IHG points for 4 nights at a place going for $825 paid. There is a comparable Hilton for $810, but it's further away, and the only other place is a lesser rated hotel for $890. $825/85k = .97cpp.
The Minneapolis nights are less certain - we have a 70k IHG points booking for 4 nights that would be $755 paid, but there are other hotels we'd be happy with in the low $600s. But even if we call it $600, that'd still be .86cpp.
We'll see - if paid rates improve then I very well could cancel one or both, but for now they seem decent. It is worth noting that even though we're at .92cpp between both, if we didn't book 4-night stays, we'd be down to .69cpp, which isn't much higher than what you have been seeing.
@Vash1 wrote:
Thanks for that breakdown. Spreadsheet makes obvious sense for tracking better. Your breakdown just gave me a better idea of how to build my spreadsheet better for tracking and decision making. The high, low, and personal value assignments are brilliant. By chance do you also use points guy or NerdWallet or something like that to track monthly minimum value of points?
I think sites/blogs/etc can give a general sense of how valuable points are, which can be useful when starting out or exploring a different system, but once you have a history with a currency, I personally believe it makes more sense to assess its value based on your own personal redemptions.
As examples, we tend to see higher than average return on Hilton and Choice, but do not find the same value in Hyatt that many do. People hype Amex MR for international business class airfare, but we have had two domestic economy redemptions at almost 3cpp.
Another way to put it, just because The Points Guy says a currency is worth 2cpp doesn't mean it'll be worth 2cpp to you. Maybe you won't see as high of value - or maybe you'll see higher!
I just looked at The Points Guy valuations out of curiousity - some are close to mine, but some are way different.
It seems to me the hotel cards are giving out too many x time per dollar spent and this is why Hilton, IHG and even now Marriott points are only worth .5 - .6 cents per. Everyone has status w/ cards and tons of points equals devaluation.
Personal Cards: Amex Plat | Amex Delta Res | CSR | Citi AA Exec Business Cards: Ink+ | Amex BGR
@redpat wrote:It seems to me the hotel cards are giving out too many x time per dollar spent and this is why Hilton, IHG and even now Marriott points are only worth .5 - .6 cents per. Everyone has status w/ cards and tons of points equals devaluation.
I think it all comes down to how the math shakes out. Apples to oranges to a degree of course, but if someone compared the $150 Surpass to the $95 World of Hyatt, the Surpass would earn 12X on the card + 18X from Gold status for a totel of 30X while the World of Hyatt would earn 4X on the card + 5X from Discoverist status for a total of 9X.
The 30X on Hilton seems like "too many," but 30X Hilton Points at .6cpp would be the same return as 9X World of Hyatt at 2cpp, values that are within the range of what much of the community has reported. I don't think this means that Hilton points have been devalued, more that they have had a different value in the first place.